Mapping Global Flash Drought Trends for Disaster Preparedness

WASHINGTON, April 25, 2024 /PRNewswire/ -- Flash droughts (FDs), characterized by sudden and severe dry spells, are emerging as formidable challenges to global water and food security, complicating disaster preparedness efforts. With their rapid onset and lasting impact, understanding the mechanisms driving flash droughts at the watershed level is paramount.

In a recent study published in Geophysical Research Letters, Dr. Maheshwari Neelam of Universities Space Research Association's (USRA) Science and Technology Institute (STI) in Huntsville, Alabama, reveals a unique approach to analyze historical data.  This approach unveils trends in three critical flash drought characteristics and develops a global vulnerability map for watersheds susceptible to cascading and compounding disasters.

The study marks the first quantitative analysis of flash drought characteristics, spanning four decades of long-term reanalysis data. By examining the speed, duration, and expansion of flash droughts at the watershed scale, the research provides valuable insights to strengthen existing early warning systems and enhance disaster mitigation and preparedness measures. Dr. Neelam, the lead author of the paper, emphasizes the importance of understanding landscapes' response to disasters, transcending geopolitical boundaries, and underscores watersheds as essential hydrologic units for assessing water budgets and water management.

The study sheds light on significant disparities between Southern and Northern Hemisphere watersheds, with the former experiencing more rapid expansion and enduring longer flash droughts, attributed to climate change-induced shifts in precipitation and temperature patterns. Notably, humid and semi-humid climates and specific land cover types exhibit heightened vulnerability, emphasizing the urgency for targeted interventions.

In South America, flash droughts are intensifying at an alarming rate, particularly in southern Brazil, aligning with deforestation patterns in the region. Conversely, watersheds in Central Asia, including High Mountain Asia and the Himalayas, witness a reduction in flash drought extent, influenced by rising temperatures and altered snowpack dynamics. Across Africa, numerous watersheds exhibit all three flash drought characteristics, signaling potential prolonged drought phases in countries such as Congo, Angola, and Madagascar.

Dr. Bernie Seery, USRA Vice President of Science stated, "This comprehensive analysis underscores the urgency for enhanced early warning systems and proactive interventions. By leveraging historical data and watershed-level insights, Dr. Neelam's study offers a vital tool for disaster management and climate resilience efforts worldwide, guiding policymakers and stakeholders towards a more sustainable and resilient future."

This work was supported by the NASA Research and Analysis Program, Weather and Atmospheric Dynamics Focus Area as part of the SPoRT project at Marshall Space Flight Center.

ABOUT USRA

Founded in 1969, under the auspices of the National Academy of Sciences at the request of the U.S. Government, the Universities Space Research Association (USRA) is a nonprofit corporation chartered to advance space-related science, technology, and engineering. USRA operates scientific institutes and facilities and conducts other major research and educational programs. An association of 120 university members, it engages the broader university community, employs in-house scientific talent, and offers innovative research, development, and project management expertise.

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SOURCE Universities Space Research Association